Small businesses could see strong customer interest this holiday season, but turning that goodwill into sales may require more than a festive storefront. A new American Express study finds that 88% of U.S. consumers are likely to shop at a small, independently owned business or restaurant during the 2026 holidays—the highest level of intent since the company began tracking the measure.

The 2026 American Express Shop Small Impact Study also points to a changing shopping journey. More consumers plan to use artificial intelligence to discover local businesses, while owners are preparing to use the technology for marketing, operations and customer service.

Holiday Shoppers Value Local Businesses and Personal Connections

The survey found that 78% of consumers consider small businesses essential to their communities, and 60% rank small businesses and local restaurants as the most important feature of their community’s identity. More than half (56%) plan to shop or dine at a small business on Small Business Saturday.

Gift shopping offers another opportunity. Some 72% of consumers say they shop at small businesses to find memorable gifts, 76% feel good spending money with a small business on holiday gifts, and 70% enjoy discovering new small businesses during the season.

For independent retailers, those findings suggest an opening to emphasize distinctive products, locally made merchandise and thoughtful gift recommendations rather than competing solely on price. Restaurants and service businesses could similarly highlight gift cards, holiday packages or experiences that customers can share.

Getting discovered still depends heavily on trusted voices. According to the study, 65% of consumers rely on friends’ or family’s recommendations when choosing a small business. Customer ratings and reviews influence 45%, while 39% look to social media posts. Businesses can support those discovery paths by keeping online profiles accurate, encouraging authentic reviews and giving satisfied customers easy ways to recommend them.

AI Moves Into Holiday Shopping and Small Business Operations

AI is becoming an additional discovery channel. The study found 35% of consumers plan to use AI to help find small businesses, and 40% expect to combine AI with recommendations from friends and family. Among Gen Z and millennial consumers, 45% plan to use AI for small-business discovery, compared with 28% of Gen X and baby boomers.

Business owners are preparing for that shift. An estimated 90% of surveyed small business owners expect to use AI tools during the 2026 holiday season. Among the uses cited, 38% plan to create or improve marketing content, 34% to help customers discover their business through AI search or recommendations, and 29% to forecast demand or manage inventory and supplies.

Other planned uses include customer service and answering questions (28%), improving product descriptions or online merchandising (28%), and scheduling or staffing (27%). Meanwhile, 72% believe AI will save time or make their operations more efficient, and 68% expect it to help attract new customers.

Those are expectations, not measured results. Businesses using AI-generated marketing or product information still need to check accuracy, pricing, availability and customer-facing claims. Owners also face a practical decision about whether a new tool’s cost and setup time will justify its benefits during a busy season.

Small Business Saturday Could Create Lasting Relationships

For many owners, holiday sales matter well beyond December. The survey found that 70% believe customer support this season will directly affect their ability to grow in 2027. Another 80% say Small Business Saturday can help build relationships that last beyond the holidays, while 77% believe the event can have an impact beyond a single day.

Community ties remain central. The study reports that 83% of owners say “community support is what keeps small businesses thriving.” Holiday support may also affect staff: 76% of owners say it boosts employee morale, not just sales.

Local sports provide another possible opening. Three-quarters of surveyed owners believe local sports fandom creates meaningful sales opportunities, and 78% agree sporting events bring out-of-town visitors who discover small businesses. Restaurants, shops and hospitality businesses near sporting venues could consider event-related promotions or partnerships, while monitoring whether the extra demand covers staffing and inventory costs.

The findings come from two online surveys conducted by Teneo for American Express in September 2026: a weighted survey of 1,008 U.S. adults and a survey of 503 owners or managers of non-franchise businesses with 2–99 employees. The business sample covered companies making sales at physical locations in retail, hospitality, personal services and arts or recreation; it did not represent every type of small business.

Most importantly, stated shopping intentions do not guarantee purchases, and anticipated AI benefits do not establish returns. For owners, the immediate opportunity is to make their businesses easy to find, give customers compelling reasons to shop locally and turn holiday visits into relationships that continue into 2027.

This article, “88% of Consumers Plan to Shop Small This Holiday Season” was first published on Small Business Trends